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Renewable Energy Innovation
November 6, 2013
There's an
adage that you can't do things the same way and expect a different result. In one sense, this is reassuring, since taking the same road each morning will bring you to work as intended. In another sense,
governments and
companies need to realize that they need to
invest in
research and development and
innovate if they want future success. I could insert the
buggy whip analogy, as taught in
economics courses; but, I'll innovate, and write instead about
asbestos.
Asbestos was the miracle material of the
last century, since it was an abundant, inexpensive,
fireproof mineral with one property quite unlike those of other minerals. Its
fibrous texture allowed its
manufacture into
fabric-like articles for use in everything from
pipe insulation to
theater curtains. In
chemical factories and
laboratories, asbestos was used as an
acid-resistant
gasket material,
furnace insulation, and "
Transite"
countertops.
We now know that
asbestos is a health hazard. Tens of thousands of
shipyard workers may have died because of asbestos exposure. Especially worrisome is the asbestos used for
fire safety in the
construction of
schools. As the
marketing people say, there are no problems, just opportunities, and we now have a thriving industry of
asbestos abatement.
The chrysotile form of asbestos, nominally Mg3(Si2O5)(OH)4, showing its fibrous nature.
The vast majority of industrial asbestos was prepared from this form.
(US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Image.)
A soon as it was realized that asbestos should no longer be used in its many applications,
materials scientists innovated and developed replacement materials. That's why I had non-asbestos insulated
gloves, made from
ceramic fiber, in my
laboratory in the 1980s.
Such necessary innovation is happening now with
energy, now that our traditional sources have proven to be toxic to the
environment. A recent study, published in
PLoS ONE by
Luís M. A. Bettencourt of the
Santa Fe Institute (Santa Fe, New Mexico) and
Los Alamos National Laboratory (Los Alamos, New Mexico), and his
colleagues at the Sante Fe Institute,
MIT, and
Indiana University (Bloomington, Indiana), reviewed the rapid pace of innovation in
renewable energy research.[1-2]
I mentioned a previous study by Bettencourt and colleagues in
another article (Modeling Cities, July 26, 2013).[3] That study, in the
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, was on
quality of life issues relating to increased
urbanization. That study found that some
metrics of urban life, such as
wealth, increase
exponentially with
population density, whereas most
infrastructure metrics, such as
fuel consumption, have an exponential decline.
For the present study, the research team assembled a
database of 73,000
patents for energy-related
technologies in more than a hundred
countries in the period 1970-2008. Energy-related patents were identified by
keyword search, not by the
classification assigned by the various patent offices. A recent surge in patents appeared in many renewable energy technologies.[2]
The number of
solar energy patents increased by 13% annually between 2004 and 2009; and the number of
wind energy patents increased 19% annually. For comparison, the annual growth rate approached or exceeded that for similar high-tech areas, such as
digital communications and
semiconductor devices. There were fewer than 200 renewable energy patent issued per year in the
United States from 1975-2000, but this increased to more than a thousand annually by 2009. Even
fossil fuel patents showed an uptick (see graph).[1]
The trend in energy patents from 1974-2008 shows rapid growth in the last decade.
(Portion of fig. 1 of ref. 1, published under a Creative Commons License.)
The research team argues that much of this innovation arose from
funding seeds planted during earlier
energy crisis situations. There is also the idea of innovation feeding upon past innovation, a "
standing on the shoulders of giants" effect.[1-2] Says MIT
assistant professor of
engineering and study co-author,
Jessika Trancik, "...this persistence of knowledge is significant - and comforting, in a way.”[2]
In new technology, there's always the
"chicken-and-egg" problem that some technologies need investment, but the improvements they offer are not apparent and not are valued in the
market.[4] Longer
battery life in a
cellphone is valued by
consumers, but whether or not the recharging
electricity comes from a renewable source is usually not. Government funding of research in such new technologies with a deep horizon is important, as are
government subsidies,
incentives and
tax breaks, or these technologies might never mature.[2]
China has been faulted for merely
commercializing technologies invented elsewhere, and being successful through innovation only in
production processes. The PLoS ONE study, however, shows a dramatic recent growth in the number of renewable-energy technology patents filed in China.[2] Although the number includes filings by entities outside China, the idea that companies feel a need for such
defensive patents indicates their belief that China will be a future player in this technology area.
Cumulative patents by region for photovoltaics (left) and coal (right). (Portion of fig. 2 of ref. 1, published under a Creative Commons License.)
The authors developed a
mathematical model that uses R&D funding and private investment to predict the number of patents, and this model fits the data quite well.[1] The research was supported by Los Alamos National Laboratory, the
National Science Foundation, the
Army Research Office, and the
Solomon Buchsbaum Research Fund of MIT.[2]
References:
- Luís M. A. Bettencourt, Jessika E. Trancik and Jasleen Kaur, "Determinants of the Pace of Global Innovation in Energy Technologies," PLoS ONE, vol. 8, no. 10 (October 14, 2013), article e67864.
- David L. Chandler,, "Innovation in renewable-energy technologies is booming," MIT Press Release, October 10, 2013.
- Lués M. A. Bettencourt, José Lobo, Dirk Helbing, Christian Kühnert, and Geoffrey B. West, "Growth, innovation, scaling, and the pace of life in cities," Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. vol. 104, no. 17 (April 24, 2007), pp. 7301-7306.
- Jennifer Jacquet, Kristin Hagel, Christoph Hauert, Jochem Marotzke, Torsten Röhl and Manfred Milinski, "Intra- and intergenerational discounting in the climate game," Nature Climate Change (Advance Online Publication, October 20, 2013), doi:10.1038/nclimate2024
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